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基于深度學習的裝備剩余壽命區間預測研究進展

Research progress on remaining useful life interval prediction of equipment based on deep learning

  • 摘要: 深度學習因其強大的特征提取能力,在裝備剩余壽命預測中得到了廣泛應用. 然而,深度學習的預測結果往往受到隨機噪聲、建模參數等因素影響,極大降低了點預測的可信度,進而引發甚至導致裝備運行崩潰. 因此,精確的剩余壽命區間預測對于理解裝備退化過程的隨機性以及進行可靠的風險分析和維護決策至關重要. 本文面向深度學習背景下裝備剩余壽命預測建模中不確定性量化的現實需求,重點介紹并歸納了自舉深度學習、局部不確定性、隨機過程深度學習、貝葉斯深度學習以及深度學習分位數回歸5種先進剩余壽命區間預測模型的發展動態、優勢和缺點,進而探討了基于深度學習的裝備剩余壽命區間預測研究中面臨的挑戰性問題以及未來潛在的研究方向.

     

    Abstract: Deep learning has been extensively employed for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of equipment owing to the powerful feature extraction ability of deep learning. However, the deep learning prediction results are often affected by random noise, modeling parameters, and other factors, considerably reducing the credibility of point predictions. This reduction may lead to inappropriate decisions and sometimes even cause equipment operation collapse. Therefore, the key to ensuring the smooth progress of the entire industrial production process is accurately quantifying the uncertainties transmitted in the output of the RUL prediction model and forming an effective and reasonable maintenance decision plan. The prediction interval is a statistical measure used to quantify uncertainty in predictions. The prediction interval comprises the upper and lower prediction bounds between which an unknown value is expected with a specific probability. The option of prediction intervals enables decision-makers and operational planners to effectively quantify the uncertainty level associated with point predictions and consider multiple solutions for optimal and worst-case conditions. A wide prediction interval indicates a high degree of uncertainty in the underlying system operation. This information signals decision-makers to avoid choosing risky actions under uncertain conditions. By contrast, a narrow prediction interval implies that decisions can be made with more confidence and unexpected situations will be less in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyze and elaborate the basic ideas and development trends of current deep learning-based RUL interval prediction models to provide a good reference for exploring implementable deep learning-based RUL interval prediction model that is highly reliable, cost-efficient, and easy. Thus, while facing the practical demand of uncertainty quantification in the modeling of equipment RUL based on deep learning, this paper first analyzes the sources of uncertainty in RUL prediction, such as data quality, model error, and changes in model parameters and the external environment. Subsequently, five popular deep learning-based RUL interval prediction models are presented: bootstrap deep learning, local uncertainty, stochastic process deep learning, Bayesian deep learning, and deep learning quantile regression. Through the model establishment process and current development status analysis, the advantages and disadvantages of the five RUL interval prediction models are summarized. Finally, the challenges encountered during the current research on the RUL interval prediction of equipment based on deep learning and potential future research directions are explored.

     

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