模糊層次分析法在我國深空探測方案優選應用探究

劉彤杰; 宋洪慶; 張杰; 駱笑天; 彭如意; 張賢國

doi:10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.12.06.008

模糊層次分析法在我國深空探測方案優選應用探究

doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.12.06.008

劉彤杰^{1, 2},
宋洪慶^{3, 4, ,},
張杰^{3, 4},
駱笑天^{3, 4},
彭如意⁵,
張賢國^{4, 5}

1.
北京航空航天大學宇航學院，北京 102206
2.
上海航天技術研究院，上海 201109
3.
北京科技大學土木與資源工程學院，北京 100083
4.
北京科技大學深空探測與資源識別利用聯合實驗室，北京 100083
5.
中國科學院國家空間科學中心，北京 100190

詳細信息

通訊作者:
E-mail: songhongqing@ustb.edu.cn

中圖分類號: P967;V57;O232
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- 被引次數: 0
出版歷程
- 收稿日期: 2021-12-06
- 網絡出版日期: 2022-04-02
- 刊出日期: 2022-07-06

Application of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in deep space exploration program optimization in China

LIU Tong-jie^{1, 2},
SONG Hong-qing^{3, 4
, ,},
ZHANG Jie^{3, 4},
LUO Xiao-tian^{3, 4},
PENG Ru-yi⁵,
ZHANG Xian-guo^{4, 5}

1.
School of Astronautics, BEIHANG University, Beijing 102206, China
2.
Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology, Shanghai 201109, China
3.
School of Civil and Resources Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
4.
Joint Laboratory of Deep Space Exploration, Resource Identification and Utilization, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
5.
National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

More Information

Corresponding author: E-mail: songhongqing@ustb.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 中國深空探測是復雜的系統工程，涉及領域多、技術難度大、經費需求高，目前方案優選方法是論證組論證和中介機構專家評估后形成，該方法論證周期長，不易快速做出科學決策。本文基于模糊層次分析模型，考慮技術、科學、經費等多指標多層次結構，建立系統指標評價模型。以中國探月工程中嫦娥四號任務方案為具體算例，綜合專家判斷和理論分析，建立各層次指標的判斷矩陣，計算權重系數，進而實現總體方案的優選應用評價。結果表明，技術、科學和經費這三個因素相對于周期和效益更為重要。在4個備選方案中，由長征四號丙發射中繼星，長征三號乙發射著陸器和巡視器組合體的方案，排序權值最大，因此該方案為最優方案，這也與實際情況一致。本研究可為我國后續各類深空探測方案制定提供快速及科學的理論支撐。
- 深空探測 /
- 探月工程 /
- 方案優選 /
- 模糊層次分析法 /
- 權重系數
Abstract: China’s deep space exploration program is a complex and systematic project involving many fields and having great technical difficulties and funding requirements. The current program optimization method was developed in response to the demonstration group’s demonstration and the expert evaluation of the intermediary agency. This method requires a long demonstration period and makes rapid scientific decisions difficult. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) are both practical multi-factor and multi-objective decision-making methods that are widely used in many fields. To solve the problem of AHP being difficult to verify and judge for consistency, the concept of a fuzzy, consistent matrix was introduced, followed by the establishment of the FAHP. The introduction of the FAHP into the optimization of the overall scheme for deep space exploration benefits both the selection of the optimal overall scheme at the national level, which enables all relevant parties to reach consensus as soon as possible, and the national scientific decision-making process. This study established a systematic index evaluation model based on the FAHP model, considering the multi-index and multi-level structure of technology, science, and funding, among other things. By combining expert judgment and theoretical analysis, a judgment matrix of indicators at various levels was established and weight coefficients were derived for the Chang’e-4 mission plan in China’s lunar exploration project. Then, the overall plan was evaluated for optimal applicability. The results show that the three factors of technology, science, and funding are more important than time and benefit. Advancement and reliability are the primary control factors under the technical criteria. Scientific value is the major controlling factor when it comes to scientific criteria. The development cost is the primary constraint on the funding criterion. Planning compliance and planning feasibility are the primary controlling factors under the cycle criterion. Scientific output and technological promotion are the major controlling factors under the criterion of benefit. Among the four alternatives, the one in which the relay satellite is launched by the Long March 4C and the lander and rover are launched by the Long March 3B has the largest sorting weight. As a result, this solution is the optimal solution that is also consistent with the current situation. This research can help China provide rapid and scientifically sound support for various deep space exploration programs.
- deep space exploration /
- lunar exploration /
- scheme optimization /
- fuzzy analytic hierarchy process /
- weight coefficient

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圖 1 模糊層次分析法流程圖

Figure 1. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process flow chart

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圖 2 層次結構圖

Figure 2. Hierarchical chart

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圖 3 準則層各因素對目標層的權重

Figure 3. Weights of each factor of criterion layer to target layer

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圖 4 指標層各因素對準則層因素的權重. (a) 技術; (b) 科學; (c) 經費; (d) 周期; (e) 效益

Figure 4. Weights of each factor in the index layer to the factor in the criterion layer: (a) technology; (b) science; (c) expenditure; (d) cycle; (e) benefit

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圖 5 各方案對技術對應指標層各元素的權重. (a) 先進性; (b) 可靠性; (c) 資源需求; (d) 團隊基礎; (e) 體系規范; (f) 風險; (g) 綜合

Figure 5. Weights of each scheme to each element of the corresponding index layer of technology: (a) advancement; (b) reliability; (c) resource requirements; (d) team basis; (e) system specification; (f) risk; (g) synthesis

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圖 6 各方案對科學對應指標層各元素的權重

Figure 6. Weights of each scheme to each element in the scientific corresponding index layer

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圖 7 各方案對經費對應指標層各元素的權重

Figure 7. Weights of each element in the corresponding index layer for each program’s expenditure

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圖 8 各方案對周期對應指標層各元素的權重

Figure 8. Weights of each element in the index layer corresponding to the period of each scheme

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圖 9 各方案對效益對應指標層各元素的權重

Figure 9. Weights of each scheme to each element of corresponding index layer

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圖 10 探月總體方案的總排序權值

Figure 10. Total ranking weight of lunar exploration program

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表 1 簡單標度法

Table 1. Simple scale method

Scale	Definition	Explanation
0	Unimportant	One element is less important than the other by comparison
0.5	Same	The two elements are equally important in comparison
1	Important	When two elements are compared, one element is more important than the other

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表 2 嫦娥四號總體方案

Table 2. Overall plan for CE-4

Project	Concrete content
Project 1	It was launched on a Russian Soyuz rocket. The combination of lander and rover was launched on a CZ-3B carrier rocket.
Project 2	The relay satellite will be launched by the CZ-2C +SM solid upper stage, while the CZ-3B will launch a combination of lander and rover.
Project 3	The relay satellite will be launched by CZ-4C and the lander and rover will be launched by CZ-3B.
Project 4	The Long March 5 will launch a relay satellite and a combination of lander and rover.

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表 3 F?S優先關系矩陣

Table 3. F?S priority matrix

Factor	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5
S1	0.5	0.5	0.5	1	1
S2	0.5	0.5	0.5	1	1
S3	0.5	0.5	0.5	1	1
S4	0	0	0	0.5	0.5
S5	0	0	0	0.5	0.5

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表 4 S1?T優先關系矩陣

Table 4. S1?T priority matrix

Factor	T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	T6
T1	0.5	0.5	1	1	1	1
T2	0.5	0.5	1	1	1	1
T3	0	0	0.5	0	0.5	0.5
T4	0	0	1	0.5	1	1
T5	0	0	0.5	0	0.5	0.5
T6	0	0	0.5	0	0.5	0.5

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表 5 T1?P優先關系矩陣

Table 5. T1?P priority matrix

Factor	P1	P2	P3	P4
P1	0.5	0	0	0
P2	1	0.5	0	0
P3	1	1	0.5	0
P4	1	1	1	0.5

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