新冠疫情下的SEIRD時滯性謠言傳播模型及辟謠策略

唐梁鴻緒; 王衛蘋; 王昊; 員曼曼; 羅熊; 李建武

doi:10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.03.16.005

新冠疫情下的SEIRD時滯性謠言傳播模型及辟謠策略

doi: 10.13374/j.issn2095-9389.2021.03.16.005

唐梁鴻緒¹,
王衛蘋^{1, 2, 3, ,},
王昊⁴,
員曼曼^{1, 2, 3},
羅熊^{1, 2, 3},
李建武^{5, 6}

1.
北京科技大學計算機與通信工程學院，北京 100083
2.
北京科技大學順德研究生院，佛山 528399
3.
材料領域知識工程北京市重點實驗室，北京 100083
4.
中國信息通信研究院信息化與工業化融合研究所，北京 100191
5.
北京理工大學前沿技術研究院，濟南 250300
6.
黃河科技學院工學部，鄭州 450000

基金項目: 國家自然科學基金資助項目（81961138010, U1836106）; 中央高校基本科研業務費資助項目（FRF-TP-19-005A3）；北京科技大學順德研究生院科技創新基金資助項目（BK19BF006，BK20BF010）

詳細信息

通訊作者:
E-mail: weipingwangjt@ustb.edu.cn

中圖分類號: TN915.08
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- 文章訪問數: 1305
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- 被引次數: 0
出版歷程
- 收稿日期: 2021-03-16
- 網絡出版日期: 2022-03-11
- 刊出日期: 2022-06-25

Time-lag rumor propagation model and rumor-refuting strategy of SEIRD under COVID-19

TANG Liang-hong-xu¹,
WANG Wei-ping^{1, 2, 3
, ,},
WANG Hao⁴,
YUAN Man-man^{1, 2, 3},
LUO Xiong^{1, 2, 3},
LI Jian-wu^{5, 6}

1.
School of Computer and Communication Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
2.
Shunde Graduate School, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Foshan 528399, China
3.
Beijing Key Laboratory of Knowledge Engineering for Materials Science, Beijing 100083, China
4.
The Research Institute of Informatization and Industrialization Integration, China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, Beijing 100191, China
5.
Advanced Technology Research Institute, Beijing Institute of Technology, Jinan 250300, China
6.
Faculty of Engineering, Huanghe Science and Technology College, Zhengzhou 450000, China

More Information

Corresponding author: E-mail: weipingwangjt@ustb.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 隨著互聯網的發展與新冠疫情的蔓延，疫情相關謠言的流量與受關注度大大提高，使其能夠迅速發酵并造成極其不良的社會影響。由此可見，研究網絡謠言的傳播過程并給出遏制網絡謠言傳播的策略有著重大意義。在傳統網絡謠言傳播SIR(Susceptible, infected, recovered)模型的基礎上加入潛在信謠者與鐵桿信謠者群體，引入政府辟謠機制，同時考慮辟謠者與政府辟謠的滯后性以及高等教育普及率對謠言傳播及辟謠過程的影響，建立了SEIRD(Susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, die-hard-infected)謠言傳播模型，以研究一個網絡謠言自誕生起，不知情者、潛在信謠者、信謠者、鐵桿信謠者以及醒悟者這五類網民比例在有無政府辟謠、辟謠是否具有滯后性、以及網民不同比例高等教育率下的變化規律，并通過實驗仿真驗證了模型的有效性，為控制網絡輿情傳播提供參考。此外，還提出了用于衡量辟謠者群體及政府權威機構辟謠能力的辟謠系數。研究結果表明，提高高等教育普及率對于減緩謠言傳播、降低謠言傳播峰值有著顯著效果；政府權威機構辟謠對于最終徹底消滅謠言起決定性作用；消滅辟謠的滯后性對于減緩網絡謠言傳播同樣有極大幫助。為此，還提出了一種未來可能的消滅辟謠滯后性的網絡謠言抑制策略。
- 網絡謠言 /
- 謠言傳播模型 /
- 鐵桿信謠者 /
- 時滯性 /
- 權威辟謠 /
- 高等教育普及率 /
- 辟謠系數 /
- 辟謠策略
Abstract: With the increasing popularity of the Internet and the spread of COVID-19, epidemic-related rumors have attracted significant attention, allowing them to brew quickly and pose extremely negative social impacts. It is of great significance to investigate the propagation process of online rumors and offer tentative strategies to curb it. Based on the traditional susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR) model of online rumor propagation, groups of potential and die-hard rumor believers were introduced in this paper, establishing an authoritative rumor-refuting mechanism. Meanwhile, this paper considered factors such as the time-lag effect of rumor refutation from the nonauthoritative and authoritative institutions and the impact of the popularizing rate of higher education on the propagation and refutation of rumors. As a result of the process, the SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, die-hard-infected) rumor propagation model was established to study how the proportion of the susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and die-hard-infected varies under different popularizing rates of higher education, the presence or absence of the authoritative rumor-refuting institutions, and the time-lag effect of rumor refutation. Finally, the model’s effectiveness was verified via experimental simulation, which provided a reference for controlling the spread of online rumor propagation. In addition, the paper proposed a rumor-refuting coefficient to measure the rumor-refuting ability of the nonauthoritative and authoritative institutions. The results show that (1) increasing popularizing rate of higher education significantly slows down the rumor propagation and reduces the rumor propagation peak; (2) refuting the rumors based on the authoritative institutions is decisive for the ultimate elimination of rumors; and (3) eliminating the time-lag effect in refuting rumors facilitates slowing down the propagation of the online rumors. Therefore, the paper puts forward a feasible strategy to eliminate the time-lag effect of online rumor refutation in the future.
- online rumor /
- rumor propagation model /
- die-hard infected believer /
- time-lag effect /
- authoritative rumor refutation /
- popularizing rate of higher education /
- rumor-refuting coefficient /
- rumor-refuting strategy

HTML全文

圖 1 SEIRD網絡謠言傳播模型流程圖

Figure 1. Flow chart of the SEIRD propagation model

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圖 2 SEIRD小型群體網絡謠言傳播模型

Figure 2. SEIRD small group online rumor propagation model

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圖 3 普及高等教育和權威機構對我國網絡環境下謠言傳播的影響。（a）SEIRD我國網絡謠言傳播模型；（b）引入權威機構辟謠的SEIRD我國網絡謠言傳播模型；（c）提高高等教育普及率的SEIRD我國網絡謠言傳播模型；（d）同時提高高等教育普及率并引入權威機構辟謠的SEIRD我國網絡謠言傳播模型

Figure 3. Influence of popularized higher education and authoritative institutions on rumor propagation in China’s online environment: (a) China’s SEIRD online rumor propagation model; (b) China’s SEIRD authoritative rumor-refuting model; (c) China’s SEIRD model for increasing the popularizing rate of higher education; (d) China’s SEIRD model for both authoritative rumor-refuting and increasing the popularizing rate of higher education

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圖 4 不同高等教育普及率對最終醒悟者與鐵桿信謠者群體占網民總人口比例的影響

Figure 4. Influence of different higher education popularizing rates on the proportion of the exposed and die-hard-infected in the total population of internet users

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圖 5 考慮“權威機構無滯后性辟謠并且普及高等教育”的SEIRD網絡謠言傳播模型

Figure 5. SEIRD model considering the authoritative rumor refutation without time lag and popularizing rate of the higher education

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圖 6 權威機構辟謠對雙黃連事件謠言傳播的影響。（a）無權威機構辟謠下的雙黃連事件謠言傳播模型；（b）有權威機構辟謠下的雙黃連事件謠言傳播模型

Figure 6. Influence of authoritative rumor refutation on the rumor spread of the Shuanghuanglian incident: (a) SEIRD rumor propagation model of the Shuanghuanglian incident without authoritative rumor refutation; (b) SEIRD rumor propagation model of Shuanghuanglian incident with authoritative rumor refutation

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