An indirect remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries based on a NARX dynamic neural network
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摘要: 鋰離子電池的直接健康因子難以實現在線測量，針對此問題，提出一種基于動態神經網絡時間序列的鋰離子電池剩余壽命（Remaining useful life, RUL）間接預測方法。首先根據鋰離子電池的放電數據，提出放電截止時間，恒流放電時間以及放電峰值溫度時間三種間接健康因子并進行灰色關聯分析（Grey relation analysis, GRA）。然后，基于非線性自回歸（Nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous inputs, NARX）動態神經網絡建立鋰離子電池RUL預測模型。最后將粒子群優化前饋神經網絡（Back propagation neural network based on particle swarm optimization, BPNN-PSO），最小二乘支持向量機（Least square support vector machine, LS-SVM），極限學習機（extreme learning machine, ELM），閉環（Closed-loop）NARX和開環（Open-loop）NARX進行對比分析，驗證了所提方法的優越性。Abstract: With increasingly serious energy shortages and environmental pollution, electric vehicles (EVs) have drawn widespread attention in recent years. The lithium-ion battery is widely used in the field of EVs owing to its superior energy density, life cycle, low self-discharge rate, and maintenance of memory. Prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries is a key parameter in battery management systems. The accurate prediction of RUL is a prerequisite to ensuring the safety and reliability of the battery system. The gradual deterioration in the performance of lithium-ion batteries with cycling is normally predicted using capacity and resistance. However, this method is difficult to use in practical applications. To address this problem, a nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) dynamic neural network was proposed to predict RUL. First, according to the discharge data of the lithium-ion battery, three indirect health indicators, namely, cut-off time, constant current time, and peak temperature time in discharge, were proposed, and grey relation analysis (GRA) was used to analyze their relation to capacity. The proposed three indirect health indicators have significant relationships with battery capacity. In addition, due to the influence of temperature vibration, electromagnetic interference, and external disturbance, RUL prediction of the lithium-ion battery is a typical nonlinear problem. In order to cover this weakness, the NARX dynamic neural network was established to predict the RUL of the lithium-ion battery. Finally, a closed-loop and an open-loop NARX were compared with the backpropagation neural network based on particle swarm optimization (BPNN-PSO), least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM), and extreme learning machine (ELM) of existing models under the open data of NASA. The experimental results show that the estimation performance RMSE (NO.5) of the proposed model is improved by about 33% compared with the standard ELM, verifying that the proposed model is superior to other methods in the RUL of lithium-ion batteries.
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Key words:
- lithium-ion batteries /
- remaining useful life /
- health indicators /
- grey relation analysis /
- NARX
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圖 5 Closed-loop NARX神經網絡結構圖
Figure 5. Structure of the closed-loop NARX dynamic neural network
圖 6 NARX動態神經網絡的鋰離子電池間接剩余壽命預測
Figure 6. Schematic diagram of the NARX dynamic neural network for RUL prediction
表 1 灰色關聯度分析結果
Table 1. Result of GRA
Indirect health indicators Battery No.5 Battery No.6 Battery No.7 Discharge voltage cut-off interval 0.8955 0.9236 0.9784 Constant current discharge interval 0.9082 0.9172 0.9645 Discharge peak temperature interval 0.8887 0.9248 0.9789 
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表 2 鋰離子電池剩余壽命預測評價指標
Table 2. Predication performance of RUL
Methods Batteries RMSE/% MAPE/% MAE/% BPNN-PSO No.5 2.17 1.21 1.62 No.6 2.31 1.18 1.59 No.7 1.92 0.98 1.45 LS-SVM No.5 1.67 1.11 1.05 No.6 2.07 1.14 1.49 No.7 2.21 1.27 1.70 ELM No.5 2.16 1.13 1.52 No.6 2.07 1.14 1.49 No.7 1.97 1.05 1.56 Closed-loop NARX No.5 1.44 0.41 0.66 No.6 1.38 0.61 0.83 No.7 1.42 0.74 1.11 Open-loop NARX No.5 1.24 0.35 0.51 No.6 1.02 0.35 0.51 No.7 1.19 0.42 0.65
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