Three-dimensional stability evaluation of shallow loess landslides under rainfall and earthquake conditions
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摘要: 以蘭州市大沙溝流域淺層黃土滑坡為研究對象，整合降雨滲透模型到黃土斜坡三維確定性模型，評價不同降雨和地震耦合效應下淺層黃土滑坡穩定性，并用混淆矩陣法和受試者工作特征曲線法（ROC）評價穩定性評價預測的結果。研究結果發現，耦合降雨入滲和地震的三維確定性模型，對流域尺度淺層黃土滑坡穩定性評價具有較好效果，能作為降雨和地震誘發黃土滑坡災害評價和早期預警的工具，對加強不同尺度極端事件下黃土滑坡災害時空災害評價和預測具有重要參考價值。Abstract: Loess is widely distributed in the Northwest Plateau of China. One-third of the landslides in China occur in the loess area. Shallow loess landslides are especially widespread and frequent geological disasters, causing serious casualties and huge property damage. Under rainfall and loading, loess is prone to structural collapse and strength reduction. Therefore, shallow loess landslides distribute widely and occur frequently. Usually, rainfall and earthquakes are the frequent and active triggers for loess landslides. In recent years, a large number of loess landslides have been induced by the coupling of rainfall and earthquakes on the Loess Plateau. Although the coupling effect of earthquake and rainfall will seriously aggravate the instability probability and disaster risk of shallow loess landslides, there is still a lack of quantitative disaster evaluation research on such landslide events. This study chose the shallow loess landslide as the research object in the Dashagou catchment of Lanzhou city. The rainfall penetration model was integrated into a three-dimensional deterministic model of the loess slope, and the stability of the shallow loess landslide was evaluated in the study area with different rainfall and seismic coupling effects. The confusion matrix and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate the results of the stability evaluation prediction. Results of this study reveal that the integration of a three-dimensional deterministic model of rainfall infiltration and earthquake effects has a good impact on the stability evaluation of shallow loess landslides at the watershed scale. Moreover, this model can be used as a tool for the assessment and early warning of rainfall and earthquake-induced loess landslides. The employment of the three-dimensional deterministic model considering a complicated slope and rainfall situation has great significance in the acquisition of results that are more accordant with the actual situation. It is of great reference value to strengthen the spatiotemporal disaster assessment and prediction of loess landslide disasters under different scales of extreme events.
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Key words:
- shallow loess landslide /
- earthquake /
- rainfall /
- infiltration simulation /
- stability evaluation
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圖 4 研究區的數字高程模型和滑坡分布圖
Figure 4. Study area digital elevation model and landslide distribution map
圖 6 降雨作用下穩定性評價圖。（a）無雨狀態；（b）中雨狀態；（c）暴雨狀態
Figure 6. Stability evaluation under rainfall: (a) no rain; (b) moderate rain; (c) heavy rain
圖 7 地震作用下穩定性評價圖。（a）Keq=0.05；（b）Keq=0.10；（c）Keq=0.20
Figure 7. Stability evaluation under earthquake: (a) Keq=0.05; (b) Keq=0.10; (c) Keq=0.20
圖 8 降雨地震作用下穩定性評價圖。（a）中雨+0.05；（b）中雨+0.10；（c）中雨+0.20；（d）暴雨+0.05；(e)暴雨+0.10；（f）暴雨+0.20
Figure 8. Stability evaluation under rainfall and earthquake: (a) moderate rain +0.05; (b) moderate rain +0.10; (c) moderate rain+0.20; (d) heavy rain +0.05; (e) heavy rain +0.10; (f) heavy rain +0.20
圖 9 失穩斜坡體積統計圖（a）和穩定性分級面積堆積圖（b）（圖中N指無雨，M指中雨，H指大雨，如M0.05指中雨和0.05地震加速度系數耦合情況）
Figure 9. Volume statistics of unstable slopes (a) and stacking diagrams of the graded area of stability (b) (N refers to no rain, M refers to moderate rain, and H refers to heavy rain. For example, M0.05 refers to the coupling of moderate rain and 0.05 earthquake acceleration coefficient)
圖 11 ROC曲線評價結果。（a）降雨情況；（b）地震情況；（c）耦合情況(圖中N指無雨，M指中雨，H指大雨。如M0.05指中雨和0.05地震加速度系數耦合情況）
Figure 11. ROC curve evaluation results: (a) rainfall; (b) earthquake; (c) coupling (N refers to no rain, M refers to moderate rain, and H refers to heavy rain, M0.05 refers to the coupling of moderate rain and 0.05 earthquake acceleration coefficient)
表 1 敏感性分析參數變化范圍
Table 1. Variation range of sensitivity analysis parameters
Item R /m C/kPa A/m2 W/N ? /(°) Keq u/kPa Range 3–15 10–50 10–2.0×104 100–2.0×106 10–30 0–0.2 ?50–100 Standard 9 30 1.0×104 1.1×106 20 0.1 25 
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表 2 土參數取值表
Table 2. Soil parameter value table
C /
kPaγ /
(kN?m?3)?/
(°)Permeability coefficient,
k /(m?s?1)Hydraulic diffusivity,
hd /(m3?s?1)30 15 29 2.4×10?6 2.4×10?4
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